Sudan's Army Advances Against RSF
The Sudanese Armed Forces announced last week they successfully broke a two-year blockade of Dilling in South Kordofan imposed by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), claiming substantial enemy casualties and equipment destruction.
Experts credit the military's resurgence to bolstered political and weapons assistance from allied nations.
Sudanese journalist and analyst Eiad Husham identified developments in Yemen, combined with escalating regional backing, as catalysts behind the army's recent battlefield successes.
He noted that diplomatic missions by Sudan's commander, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, to neighboring capitals have reinforced military standing, forecasting that the "Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) will have the upper hand" in the continuing confrontation.
Fighting erupted in April 2023 between government troops and the RSF, creating mass displacement and spawning one of the planet's most severe humanitarian emergencies. The RSF maintains control over all five states in western Darfur—excluding northern portions of North Darfur held by the army—while military forces dominate most of the remaining 13 states, including capital Khartoum.
Battlefield Momentum Shifts
Combat intensity has surged recently across Sudan's three Kordofan states, where the army reports territorial advances.
"The SAF, with tactics and weapons equal or similar to what the RSF has, can take the places they lost in Kordofan, and they can push for Darfur," Husham told media.
Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London and geopolitical risk analyst, said he would treat Kordofan and Darfur as "two different wars inside the same war."
"Kordofan is where the Sudanese Armed Forces can plausibly generate momentum because it sits at the hinge between the center and the west," he said.
Krieg assessed that maintaining and expanding control over critical transportation routes, safeguarding military installations and sustaining logistics could enable continued incremental progress.
Such gains wouldn't constitute outright victory, he cautioned, but could reshape the conflict by restricting RSF movement and diminishing its eastward operational capacity.
Both experts identified Darfur recapture as significantly more challenging.
According to Krieg, the RSF's comparative advantage has long been its "embedded coercive networks, local revenue streams and cross-border depth."
"Even if the SAF can push into parts of Darfur or contest specific towns, holding territory there requires more than offensives and airstrikes," he said. "It requires reliable ground partners, secure supply lines and enough administrative capacity to prevent areas from sliding back under RSF control once the army moves on."
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