AGP Executive Report

Red Sea Flashpoints: Iran-backed Houthis hit Yemen’s Mokha (Mocha) with rockets and drones, killing at least 7 and wounding around 20, while Yemen’s government says it also struck back across Taiz fronts after the port attacks. Saudi Energy Under Pressure: The Houthis claimed a drone strike on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery; Saudi officials said a fire was extinguished with no injuries. Hormuz Talks Stall: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz won’t reopen until the U.S. “corrects its behavior,” demanding an end to threats, war, sanctions and the naval blockade, plus compensation and release of frozen assets; Oman-Iran lane talks are said to be in “final stages,” but Tehran insists U.S. conditions come first. Regional Security Pacts Tested: Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan’s Nato-style “Mecca” defense pact faces immediate strain as Houthis continue striking across the region, including near Red Sea chokepoints. Diplomatic Pushback: Bahrain and other Arab states welcomed UN Security Council condemnation of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and commercial shipping.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz won’t reopen until the U.S. “corrects its behaviour,” laying out sweeping conditions including ending the war, lifting sanctions and blockades, releasing frozen assets, and paying compensation—while Oman and Iran say talks are nearing “final stages” but not an imminent reopening. Maritime Flashpoint: The UAE condemned an attack on an ADNOC-operated tanker in the strait, saying an Iranian missile targeted the ship and no injuries were reported, as Saudi and Yemen’s internationally recognized government joined regional condemnation of the incident. Yemen Frontline: Yemen’s government forces reported intercepting two Houthi explosive drones over Marib and said they carried out strikes against Houthi positions in response to renewed attacks. Saudi Security & Rights: Saudi Arabia welcomed a UN Security Council statement condemning Houthi missile attacks on the kingdom and attacks on commercial vessels, while Yemen’s rights bodies condemned Saudi-led coalition strikes on civilian homes and border areas. Regional Alliances: Turkey’s foreign minister said Egypt could join the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan “Mecca” joint defence pact, framed as collective deterrence. Energy Update: A fire at Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery was extinguished with no injuries reported, amid ongoing concerns about attacks on energy infrastructure.

Marib Frontline Escalation: Yemen’s government forces say they intercepted and destroyed 10 Houthi drones over Marib as clashes intensify across multiple fronts, while the Houthis report missile and drone attacks on Marib city and claim strikes on the Sahn al-Jin camp. Civilian Impact Fears: Yemeni officials say renewed shelling hit displacement camps and residential areas, killing at least two and injuring 14, with Marib home to millions of displaced people. Government Response: The Yemeni army says it launched retaliatory operations targeting Houthi sites and capabilities, warning it will take “necessary military measures” if attacks continue. UN Push for Restraint: The UN Security Council condemned Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Arabia and commercial vessels and criticized unauthorized flights to Sana’a and Hodeidah airports, urging de-escalation and respect for Yemen’s sovereignty. Hormuz Diplomacy Under Pressure: Oman says talks with Iran on Strait of Hormuz administration are “positive and constructive,” but Iran insists reopening depends on US compensation and demands the US end its actions; the UAE says an Iranian missile targeted an ADNOC-linked ship. Regional Security Deal: Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Türkiye signed the “Makkah Joint Defence Agreement,” treating an attack on one as an attack on all—raising new stakes as Yemen conflict and Hormuz tensions run in parallel.

Yemen Frontlines: Yemen’s army says it launched coordinated strikes on Houthi positions and equipment across multiple sectors, warning that attacks on any front will be treated as aggression against the whole force. Marib Escalation: Houthi attacks in oil-rich Marib killed at least 10 people, with shelling reported hitting residential areas and displacement camps; the UN envoy warned Yemen faces a higher risk of renewed large-scale conflict than since the 2022 truce. Saudi-Yemen Tensions: Sana’a’s Foreign Ministry warned Saudi officials that continued “colonial” policies will lead to the collapse of the Riyadh regime, while Yemeni officials rejected Saudi calls for confronting Sanaa militarily. Regional Security Shockwave: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed the “Mecca Joint Defense Agreement,” framed as NATO-style “attack on one, attack on all,” drawing immediate Iranian criticism. Humanitarian Strain: Migrants in Ceuta described sleeping outdoors without tents or blankets amid brutal cold nights and extreme heat.

Yemen Frontline: Houthi missile and drone attacks hit Yemen’s Marib again, killing at least two civilians and injuring 14, as strikes targeted residential areas and displacement camps; the government also said it shot down several drones over Marib. Regional Security: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed the “Mecca Joint Defense Agreement,” saying an attack on any one will be treated as an attack on all—an “attack on one, attack on all” pledge amid rising Gulf instability. Diplomacy & Pressure: The EU condemned the “unacceptable” Houthi attacks across Yemen and into southern Saudi Arabia, urging immediate cessation and warning of further escalation. Shipping & Energy Risk: With Strait of Hormuz talks still fluid, Iran and Oman are reported to be nearing a framework for managing the strait, while Yemen-linked attacks keep supply fears alive for Red Sea and Gulf routes. Human Impact: Saudi-led coalition reports 11 civilians injured in Najran from Houthi attacks, including a child, as Riyadh warns of wider coordinated threats.

Houthi Attacks on Saudi Border: Yemen’s Houthis fired missiles and drones into Saudi Arabia’s Najran region, injuring 11 civilians, including a 4-year-old with second-degree burns, as Riyadh accused indiscriminate shelling and warned of wider escalation. Deadliest Yemen Clashes: The same escalation wave hit Yemen’s Marib and Hadramaut, where Houthi strikes on government camps killed dozens of troops, with reports ranging from 38 to 58 dead and dozens more wounded. Red Sea Shipping Pressure: Houthi actions targeting Saudi-linked tankers and threats around Bab el-Mandeb are pushing more rerouting and keeping energy markets jumpy, with oil prices rising again on supply fears. Gulf Security Talks: Turkey’s Erdogan is set to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif in Jeddah, with sources saying a joint defense agreement is in the works amid Iran-backed militia threats. Hormuz Diplomacy vs. Risk: While Iran and Oman say a Strait of Hormuz plan is nearing final drafting, Saudi and market watchers warn that reopening depends on wider security conditions, keeping regional tensions—and fuel-price worries—alive.

Yemen War Update: Iran-backed Houthis launched “large-scale” missile and drone attacks on government military camps in Marib and Hadramout, killing at least 30 troops and wounding dozens, with reports of deaths rising to 45 as authorities assess casualties. US Condemnation: The U.S. Embassy in Yemen called the strikes “cowardly” and sent condolences to families of the dead while reaffirming support for Yemen’s government forces. Escalation Signals: Houthis say they hit Saudi-backed emergency forces’ positions, destroyed camps and depots, and warned Saudi Arabia against further escalation, hinting at a “wide and qualitative” operation. Maritime Pressure: Separate reports say Houthis also targeted Saudi-linked tankers near Yemen, adding to fears for Red Sea and Gulf of Aden shipping. Regional Diplomacy: Saudi Arabia and the UAE publicly moved to reconcile, while Saudi announced a commander for a multinational maritime defense coalition to protect Bab al-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden routes. Human Cost: Yemen’s health authorities ordered higher readiness in Marib and Hadramout as wounded soldiers arrive.

Maritime Security: Yemen’s Houthis claimed they hit Saudi oil tanker “Daisy” in the Gulf of Aden with a ballistic missile, forcing it to turn back, while UKMTO reported a loud explosion near a tanker southeast of Aden with the crew safe; the group also earlier claimed attacks on Saudi shipping in the Red Sea, raising fears of a wider blockade. Hormuz Diplomacy: Iran and Oman say they’ve agreed on the geographic coordinates for a safer Strait of Hormuz route and are finalizing a joint statement, but Iran warns the strait won’t be fully safe unless the US ends its naval blockade of Iranian ports; Trump says a deal could be announced within days. Human Impact: Human Rights Watch warned Israeli restrictions in the West Bank delayed ambulances, contributing to the death of a fetus during transport; separate reporting highlighted emotional stress on breastfeeding mothers living through conflict. Local Yemen Events: Hajjah officials and communities mobilized to commemorate Prophet’s Birthday, with similar symposiums reported in Raymah.

Red Sea Security: UKMTO says it received a delayed report of a vessel attacked southwest of Mokha after an unmanned surface boat sparked a fire; all crew were rescued and the ship later reported sunk. Maritime Incident: India condemned the sinking of the Indian-flagged MSV Faize Noore Oliya off Yemen after a projectile hit; Yemeni Coast Guard rescued all 14 crew (including 13 Indians) and transferred them to Mokha. Houthis vs Saudi Shipping: Houthi media claimed a ballistic missile strike on the Saudi oil tanker Wafa off Yanbu, saying eight tankers were targeted since late July; Yemen’s foreign ministry also condemned attacks on shipping. Hormuz Deal Watch: US President Trump said a Strait of Hormuz reopening deal could come as early as Wednesday, while Iran and Oman discussed route coordinates—though sources warn key details remain unsettled. Diplomacy in Yemen: The US Embassy in Yemen announced Neil Hop’s arrival as Chargé d’Affaires. Humanitarian Return: UNHCR reported the first 2026 airlift of Somali refugees from Aden to Mogadishu, carrying 155 people back home.

Red Sea Shipping Crisis: An India-flagged vessel, MSV Faize Noore Oliya, sank off Yemen after a suspected projectile attack; all 14 crew (13 Indians, 1 Yemeni) were rescued by Yemeni coast guard and taken to Mokha, while India condemned the “unprovoked” strike and urged free navigation. Hormuz Deal Jitters: US officials and Qatar say talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are making progress, with Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinting a deal could come “today or tomorrow,” even as Iran denies direct US negotiations and says talks are with Oman. Yemen-Saudi Tensions: Yemen’s forces said they targeted a “sensitive” Saudi site at Najran Airport with a drone, after Saudi airspace violations were alleged; operations at a Saudi airport were reported suspended following the claim. Yemeni Economy Under Siege: Sana’a hosted a closing event for “Yemeni Economy: 12 Years Under Saudi Siege,” with officials citing $1.13 trillion in documented losses tied to the blockade and aggression. Health Sector Strain: Sana’a health officials met with hospitals to highlight ongoing suffering from the siege and aggression, calling for better readiness and free check-ups during Prophet’s Birthday activities.

Red Sea Security: An Indian cargo vessel, MSV Faize Noore Oliya, sank after an explosives-laden boat attack off Yemen’s western coast near Hodeidah; Yemeni forces rescued all 14 crew members (13 Indians, 1 Yemeni) and took them to Mokha, while the Houthis have not commented and investigations are expected. Houthi-Saudi Tensions: The Houthis claimed a drone strike hit a “sensitive target” at Najran Airport in retaliation for alleged Saudi drone incursions into Saada and Hajjah, warning further airspace violations would be met with response. Maritime Pressure on Oil Routes: Saudi Aramco said the US-Iran war has removed more than 2.6 billion barrels of oil from global markets and warned inventories may take up to 18 months to recover if Hormuz reopens, as Houthi threats and Red Sea risks keep shippers rerouting. Diplomacy Watch: Qatar said mediators are making progress toward ending the US-Iran war and reopening Strait of Hormuz, but Tehran denies US talks are underway, leaving shipping uncertainty high.

US-Iran Tensions and Oil Markets: Trump again called off fresh strikes on Iran, but Iran’s foreign ministry denied any US talks, leaving markets jittery; Brent slid about 5–7% to a three-week low before a modest rebound as shipping risks persisted around Hormuz and the Red Sea. Shipping Through Yemen’s Gateways: Reuters says Bab el-Mandeb traffic stayed steady while Strait of Hormuz transits were lighter; meanwhile, Saudi-operated tankers kept rerouting around Africa to avoid Houthi threats. Humanitarian Alarm in Yemen: Hunger is worsening as major donors retreat and the UN warns of rising food insecurity; in Yemen’s Houthi-controlled areas, a vaccine shortage is threatening nearly 5 million children, while Marib faces a measles emergency. Mines Cleared by KSrelief: KSrelief’s Masam project removed 1,448 mines across Yemen in one week, bringing the project total to 578,226. Yemen’s Red Sea Stance: Yemen’s Shura Speaker reiterated Sana’a’s right to end the blockade and rejected calls to “militarize” Red Sea waters.

US-Iran Brinkmanship: Trump again told Iran to “make a deal or surrender,” while Iran denied talks with Washington and said it’s only discussing a temporary Hormuz route with Oman—keeping uncertainty high for Gulf shipping and energy. Red Sea Pressure on Yemen: Analysts warn the threat to oil tankers is the worst since the Iran war began, as Houthis resume attacks and more Saudi tankers reroute away from the Bab el-Mandeb corridor. Yemen Frontlines: Yemen’s army says several Houthi fighters were killed or injured in Taiz during an attempted infiltration, as fighting intensifies across multiple fronts. Regional Diplomacy: GCC Secretary-General met Yemen’s foreign minister, reiterating GCC support for stability and humanitarian efforts. Humanitarian Health: Qatar Red Crescent (QRCS) says it has built and equipped a free dialysis centre in Lahij, with services now in operation.

Bab el-Mandeb: Yemen’s Houthi authorities denied plans to charge tolls for ships transiting the strait, saying passage is “free of charge” and warning against any unauthorized payments or use of HOCC’s name. US-Iran Tensions: President Trump said the US will hold off on a fresh Iran attack while a deal is pursued, as Iran says talks with Oman on a new Hormuz route are in their final stages. Red Sea Security: Saudi Arabia announced a new multinational maritime security alliance with five African countries, aiming to protect Red Sea and Gulf of Aden shipping amid ongoing disruptions. Humanitarian Pressure in Yemen: The UN warned Yemen’s escalating conflict and severe funding shortfalls could restrict aid to millions, while UNFPA said it reached nearly 400,000 people with life-saving reproductive health and protection support in the first half of 2026. Local Yemen Developments: Taiz approved a 2026/2027 executive plan matrix worth 4.4 billion Yemeni riyals, and a QRCS-funded dialysis centre in Lahij has begun operations.

US-Iran Tensions: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged Donald Trump to prioritize dialogue and de-escalation after Trump said the US would pause new strikes on Iran, citing “perimeters” of a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz—while Iranian officials denied any halt request and said Hormuz remains closed. Red Sea & Yemen Stakes: With shipping routes under pressure, Yemen’s Houthis and Yemeni authorities traded accusations over possible fees and restrictions around Bab al-Mandab, as regional maritime security remains a flashpoint. Local Yemen Focus—Mawlid Events: Across Yemen, authorities and communities marked Prophet Muhammad’s birthday with speeches, cultural gatherings, and preparations—from Hajjah and Sana’a to Hodeida, Raymah, Al-Bayda, and Dhamar—often pairing religious messages with calls for unity and steadfastness. Courts & Security: Sana’a’s appeals court heard cases tied to an alleged espionage cell linked to British and Saudi intelligence, including death sentences in the first ruling. Humanitarian & Development: KSrelief reported aid deliveries to Gaza and Yemen, including food baskets, medical services in Marib, and emergency support after camp fires.

US-Iran Pause: Trump says the US will hold off fresh attacks on Iran if a rapid deal is reached, calling for the “immediate, complete and total” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat. Iran’s Warning: Tehran, through Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, warns any “adventurous action” will be met with a decisive, “proportionate” response, as Kuwait reports it destroyed Iranian drones. Shipping Pressure Near Yemen: With Hormuz and Gulf tensions rising, Yemen’s HOCC denies any plan to charge transit fees at Bab al-Mandab, insisting safe passage remains free and warning against fake pay-for-transit claims. Red Sea Security Moves: Saudi Arabia is preparing a wider maritime push against Houthi attacks and is building a Red Sea defense coalition, while Houthis deny seeking to impose tolls. Yemen Human Impact: Yemen’s embassy in Morocco says it is tracking Yemeni deaths and missing people linked to Ceuta crossing attempts, coordinating with Moroccan authorities on identification and repatriation.