AGP Executive Report

Yemen–Saudi Front: Reuters reports Yemen’s Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia from Iraqi territory with Iran-backed Iraqi groups, as Saudi and regional partners assess the strikes included attacks on Saudi oil facilities; the development raises fears the Yemen conflict is widening beyond current borders. Red Sea Pressure: With Houthi attacks and threats, shipping is getting riskier and some Saudi oil tankers have reportedly “gone dark” by switching off transponders to avoid Red Sea curbs, while Yemen’s government accuses Houthis of planning Red Sea transit fees. US–Iran Escalation: The US and Iran traded missile barrages again after a brief lull, with the US saying it hit dozens of IRGC targets; mediators warn hopes for a quick end are fading. Egypt Damietta Drone Strike: Egypt confirmed a drone caused a fire on two gas vessels at Damietta port, while Houthis denied involvement—an incident analysts say could be a signal that American interests are vulnerable across the region. Diplomacy & Yemen: Italy’s ambassador presented credentials to Yemen’s President Al-Alimi, underscoring continued European engagement as maritime security and energy routes remain under strain.

US-Iran Escalation: The US launched a heavy wave of strikes on Iran after Iran’s missile attack on a US base in Jordan, with CENTCOM saying it hit “dozens” of IRGC targets including command centers, missile/drone sites, and coastal defenses; Trump vowed the response would be “very hard.” Regional Spillover: The same flare-up period saw drone strikes and fires reported at Egypt’s Damietta port, while US-Saudi joint strikes hit Iran-aligned militias in Iraq, killing at least 20 fighters and Iranian advisers—raising fears the war could widen further. Yemen & Red Sea Pressure: Yemen’s Houthis, tied to the broader Iran-US fight, are again in focus as reports say they’re considering transit fees for ships through Bab al-Mandeb, a move that could reshape Red Sea shipping costs and routes. Oil & Inflation Watch: Oil jumped above $90 as the conflict threatened key chokepoints, with analysts warning renewed shipping disruption could push prices higher and revive inflation risks.

Red Sea Fees Watch: Yemen’s internationally recognized government accuses the Houthis—backed by Iran—of planning a transit-fee system for ships using the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb, saying IRGC advisers are helping set up the technical and administrative framework to collect payments, a move officials warn could turn a key shipping corridor into permanent funding for militia activity. Houthi Escalation Signals: Reuters reports the Houthis are considering charging fees on most commercial vessels through the southern Red Sea, with Chinese ships reportedly exempt, after they declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia and expanded attacks on tankers. Regional War Widening: As Iran launches missile barrages and the US and Saudi strike Iran-backed militias in Iraq, analysts warn the Middle East is sliding into “uncharted territory,” with fears the conflict could spread further. Oil and Shipping Pressure: The renewed fighting is already pushing energy prices higher and adding fresh uncertainty for routes tied to Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, where disruptions are hitting tanker traffic and regional economies.

Yemen–Saudi Red Sea: Yemen’s Houthis claimed they shot down a Saudi “Karayel” reconnaissance drone over Saada, saying it was conducting “hostile actions,” and reiterated their right to respond. Maritime pressure: The Houthis also said they targeted Saudi oil shipping in the Red Sea, forcing a Saudi tanker to turn back amid an ongoing naval blockade. Regional escalation: The US and Saudi Arabia carried out strikes in eastern Iraq against Iran-backed groups, citing more than 30 drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities, while Iran claimed missile action affecting the wider Middle East. Hormuz diplomacy: Oman proposed a Gulf-backed plan to manage Strait of Hormuz with voluntary fees, as India urged de-escalation at the UN Security Council and called for restoring free navigation through key waterways. Saudi energy hit: Saudi Aramco shut its Jazan refinery after a Houthi-linked attack, adding fresh strain to regional fuel supplies. Local Yemen events: Hajjah and Sana’a authorities launched preparations and nationwide activities for Prophet Muhammad’s birthday, alongside youth and mobilization programs.

Red Sea & Hormuz Tensions: Yemen’s Houthis say they’re trying to “copy” Iran’s Hormuz-style pressure by disrupting shipping through Bab al-Mandeb, while Saudi and regional partners warn attacks threaten navigation and energy flows. Saudi Energy Hit: Saudi Aramco shut down its Jazan refinery after a Houthi-linked attack, with repairs expected to resume by Aug. 15, as satellite imagery showed fires and damage. Diplomacy Watch: US-Iran talks are back on track after a pause in strikes, with mediators including Oman and Pakistan; Iran denies direct talks but says messages continue. Regional Security: Iraq ordered an investigation into Saudi claims that drones were launched from Iraqi territory, stressing Baghdad won’t allow its land to be used for attacks. Yemen Humanitarian Update: IOM reports internal displacement in Yemen fell sharply last week, with most new displacement in Marib driven by security fears. Weather in Hodeidah: Lightning struck villages in Hays district, injuring five people and damaging homes and livestock.

US-Iran diplomacy under strain: Trump says Washington is having “good talks” with Iran and a deal is possible, but warns strikes will resume if negotiations fail; Iran denies direct talks and says messages are only via mediators, while drone attacks by Iran-backed groups keep testing the pause. Saudi-Iraq drone row: Saudi Arabia says it shot down drones launched from Iraq targeting oil infrastructure and will respond; Iraq orders an investigation as Iran-backed militias deny involvement. Yemen’s Red Sea pressure: Yemen’s internationally recognised government warns the Houthis want to “copy” Iran’s Hormuz strategy by controlling shipping through Bab al-Mandeb; Houthis claim drone attacks on Saudi crude supply and transport links to Yanbu. Shipping hit: Reports say Bab al-Mandeb traffic fell 56% after a Houthi embargo warning, adding fresh energy and food worries across the region. Local Yemen updates: Sana’a hosts media briefings on the siege and a poultry-and-nutrition seminar, while human rights groups hold a press conference on coalition crimes against Yemen.

Red Sea Shipping Hit Hard: Kpler data shows Bab el-Mandeb traffic plunged after Yemen’s Houthis attacked Saudi oil facilities, with just 11 cargo vessels crossing Sunday—the lowest in months—while only three oil tankers entered the Red Sea. Houthi Drone Claims on Saudi Oil Route: Houthis said they launched drones at “sensitive” crude supply and transport sites linking eastern Saudi Arabia to Yanbu, in retaliation for alleged Saudi drone incursions into Yemeni airspace; Saudi has not confirmed damage. Saudi Blames Iraq-Based Pro-Iran Drones: Saudi Arabia says it intercepted drones launched from Iraq targeting petroleum facilities in the Eastern Province and Riyadh, and warned it will respond. Diplomacy vs. Escalation: Amid a US-Iran pause and mediator talks, scattered attacks continue across the region, keeping energy markets jittery. Local Yemen Security: Gunmen hijacked a passenger bus in Abyan, forcing passengers out at gunpoint and seizing the vehicle, raising fresh concerns over safety on Yemen’s main highway.

Red Sea Security: Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis struck three Saudi oil tankers in two days, while shipping through Bab al-Mandab hit its lowest level in months, with 11 commodity vessels passing Sunday after attacks on Saudi energy sites. Yemen PM Response: Yemeni Prime Minister Shaya Zindani condemned the Red Sea attacks as an “Iranian agenda,” urging the international community to deter Houthi actions and protect freedom of navigation. Economic Fallout in Yemen: Yemen’s Transport Minister said Red Sea Ports Corporation losses exceed $12 billion due to Saudi blockade and inspection delays, with Hodeidah Port handling far fewer containers than before. US-Iran Pause: The US and Iran paused strikes for a second straight day, with talks involving Oman, easing oil fears. Oil Markets: Brent fell over 5% to around $92 and WTI to about $85 as diplomacy hopes rose, though Hormuz traffic remained severely restricted. Regional Pressure: Nigeria urged de-escalation between Houthis and Saudi Arabia, warning escalation could endanger civilians and regional stability.

US-Iran Lull, Yemen’s Red Sea Still Hot: The US paused airstrikes on Iran for a second straight day, with Tehran saying it also halted retaliatory attacks, as talks with Oman over Hormuz continue. Red Sea Flashpoint: Even with the Gulf pause, Yemen’s Houthis escalated against Saudi-linked energy and shipping, including claims of drone/missile attacks on Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, while a projectile reportedly landed near a tanker in the southern Red Sea with no damage. Yemen Frontline Fighting: Heavy clashes flared in Al-Dhalea as joint forces hit Houthi positions with artillery and rockets. Security Claims in Al-Jawf: Houthis also claimed they shot down a Turkish-made Saudi reconnaissance drone over Al-Jawf. Humanitarian Pressure: In Mukalla, health workers are battling a dengue outbreak by tracking mosquito breeding sites.

Red Sea Flashpoint: Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis fired missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, saying it was retaliation for coalition strikes on Hodeidah, as Saudi air defenses reported intercepts and alerts. US-Iran Pause: The US paused new airstrikes on Iran after 13 nights, while keeping its naval blockade in full effect—redirecting 12 commercial vessels and disabling non-compliant ships—raising fresh questions about whether diplomacy can hold. Energy Shock Watch: S&P Global Ratings warned the attacks could worsen refined fuel shortages and push diesel prices higher, with shipping logistics uncertain as oil moves around the region. Maritime Insurance Squeeze: Analysts say war risk is turning into a cost barrier for global trade, with premiums surging after Red Sea attacks. Diplomacy Efforts: Egypt’s FM and Saudi counterpart urged de-escalation and protection of international waterways. UK Travel Warning: The UK updated advice for Saudi Arabia, warning against travel near the Saudi-Yemen border due to missile/drone risks. Press Freedom in Yemen: Yemen’s journalist killing and broader impunity concerns drew renewed calls to end crimes against media workers.

Red Sea Escalation: Iran-backed Houthis fired missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia, claiming strikes on Aramco-linked facilities in Jizan and Yanbu in retaliation for Saudi airstrikes on Hodeida and Kamaran Island. Saudi Response: Saudi authorities reported missile threats and said Greek-operated Patriot systems intercepted two ballistic missiles over Yanbu; the coalition also said it carried out proportionate strikes on Houthi military targets in Hodeida while keeping Yemeni ports open for aid. Diplomacy vs. War: Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi urged dialogue, insisting there is “no military solution,” as Yemen’s leadership accused Houthis of having “only the option of war.” Humanitarian & Civilian Toll: Yemen’s Interior Ministry said two children were killed and another injured by a Houthi landmine in Al-Bayda. Energy Pressure: The renewed fighting is again rattling oil markets near $100 and raising fears of wider disruption to Bab el-Mandeb shipping. Aviation Update: Yemen’s Civil Aviation started 24-hour operations at Riyan International Airport in Hadramawt.

Red Sea Escalation: Trump vowed “major military punishment” for Iran and its Houthi allies after the Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers, while the US said it fired on another merchant vessel trying to breach its blockade of Iranian ports. Saudi-Yemen Front: Saudi airstrikes hit Yemen’s Hodeidah, with Houthi media alleging telecom and Kamaran Island targets; the Saudi-led coalition says it hit only military sites linked to threats to commercial shipping and insists Hodeidah port remains operational. Houthi Response: Ansar Allah repeated its “siege for siege, ports for ports” line and warned Saudi actions “will not go unanswered,” as rallies across Yemen backed the maritime ban and called for mobilization. Humanitarian Pressure: Yemen’s health sector is under siege, with shortages of medicines and dialysis supplies pushing services toward collapse. Diplomacy in Limbo: Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal carried via Iraq, while Pakistan explores a possible restart of stalled US-Iran talks. Local Life & Research: Sana’a awarded a master’s degree for urban malaria research, and medical symposiums in Hodeidah highlighted trauma and emergency care.

Red Sea Shipping Crisis: Yemen’s Houthis say they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea with ballistic and cruise missiles plus drones, while the group also insists Bab al-Mandab remains open and targets are limited to Saudi-linked shipping—raising fresh fears of a wider Middle East chokepoint fight. Iran–US Escalation: The US carried out its 13th straight night of strikes on Iran, as Trump signals he may consider a “massive attack,” and Iran warns civilians near US troop sites to stay 500 meters away. Regional Impact on Yemen: Reuters reports Iran flew IRGC commanders and missile-related equipment to Yemen in a July 13 flight to Hodeidah, strengthening Houthi capacity to threaten Red Sea routes. UN Alarm: UN chief Guterres’ office says it is deeply alarmed by renewed Houthi attacks on commercial vessels and calls for immediate de-escalation. Markets & Fuel Pressure: Oil stays volatile above $100 as shipping risks mount, with knock-on effects for global energy costs and regional economies. Maritime Security Efforts: The EU’s naval mission said an Italian frigate escorted commercial ships safely through the Red Sea, underscoring how contested the route has become.

Red Sea Energy Shock: Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis claimed they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, renewing fears of a wider maritime blockade at Bab el-Mandeb as Brent surged above $100 a barrel for the first time since May. US-Iran Escalation: The U.S. carried out its 13th straight night of strikes on Iran, with Trump warning that any damage to ships or cargo would be paid for using Iranian funds held by the U.S., while also threatening “major military punishment” for Iran and the Houthis. Regional Pushback: Gulf states and Jordan reiterated their right to self-defense and urged the UN Security Council to act as attacks spread across key shipping and energy infrastructure. Yemen Stakes: UN envoy Hans Grundberg said the renewed Red Sea attacks risk dragging Yemen back toward full-scale war, calling for talks to address Yemen’s political and security crisis.

Red Sea Escalation: Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis claimed they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, sparking fires and renewed fears of a wider blockade of Bab al-Mandeb as the US carries out its 12th night of strikes against Iran. Oil Shock: Brent crude surged back above $100 a barrel, dragging global markets lower and raising inflation worries as shipping disruptions threaten another key route for Middle East exports. Iran’s Role in Yemen: Reuters reports Iran flew IRGC commanders and missile/drone equipment into Yemen earlier this month to bolster Houthi capabilities for Red Sea operations. International Pushback: Qatar, the UAE, and the EU condemned the attacks as violations of maritime law and direct threats to global energy security, while US President Trump warned Iran and the Houthis of “major military punishment” if attacks continue. Yemen Frontline Fighting: In Dhalea, Yemen government forces reported fierce clashes with Houthis, with casualties on both sides. Humanitarian/Protection: In Taiz, Saudi-backed Project Masam destroyed thousands of unexploded ordnance items in the Bab al-Mandab area to reduce landmine and war-remnant risks to civilians.

Red Sea Energy Shock: Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis claimed they struck two Saudi oil tankers, Encelia and Layla, with missiles and drones, after declaring a maritime “blockade” tied to Saudi port restrictions; UKMTO reported a tanker hit about 70 nautical miles southwest of Al Shuqaiq, with a fire but no casualties, while Saudi state media said the Encelia crew was safe and the blaze contained. US-Iran Escalation: The US said it carried out a 12th straight night of strikes on Iran, as Trump warned the US will destroy a bridge or power plant for every ship attack in the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran responding “eye for an eye.” Markets and Yemen’s Role: The Red Sea threat is already reshaping shipping routes and adding pressure to oil prices, which is feeding inflation worries across the region and beyond. Local Security and Smuggling: A southern Yemen source said smuggling networks and a security vacuum helped set the stage for the Red Sea blockade threat.